Iran Sitrep · 2026

Iran Current Events Monitor

A mobile-first briefing compiled from trusted RSS feeds with optional AI summarization.

Last updated: Jan 13, 08:52 AM

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Regime Fall Probability

Current confidence indicator based on keyword signals in the latest feeds.

Moderate signal
37%

History keeps the base chance near 18%. Today we scanned 26 curated headlines, broadly sourced, mixed low and high-impact incidents, which points to 53%. No AI double-check is available right now; relying on headlines only.

Other Risk Gauges

Auto-generated from the latest headlines.

Chance of U.S. strike on Iran

24%

Tracks chatter about direct U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iranian targets.

4 of 26 headlines mention this topic.

4 of 26 headlines mention this topic across 3 outlets.

Main Event Summary

Auto-generated briefing from the latest headlines.

  • Deadly crackdown: security forces have killed at least ~646–648 people and arrested more than 10,600 amid nationwide protests, according to multiple news counts.
  • Communications blackout: Iran’s internet shutdown has passed roughly 108 hours, NetBlocks reports, severely hindering reporting; small groups are using smuggled tech to传 messages out.
  • US responses: President Trump has announced a 25% tariff on countries that trade with Iran and is weighing diplomacy alongside a range of military strike options presented by the Pentagon; Tehran says it is prepared for any move.
  • Global fallout: oil prices rose to a two-month high on the tensions, and some Western leaders — including Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz — have publicly questioned the regime’s stability.

Latest Headlines

Aggregated from trusted sources. Tap a headline to read more.

Al Jazeera Middle East

The Guardian – Iran

Iran crisis live: Iranian regime is in its ‘final days and weeks’, says German chancellor

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Friedrich Merz says government is ‘effectively at the end’ after nearly 650 protesters reportedly killed in the ongoing crackdown Iran’s internet shutdown has passed the 108-hour mark, according to an update from the internet tracking agency NetBlocks. The tracking agency has said the blackout, which has seriously hampered the media’s ability to report on wh...

Oil hits two-month high as Trump threatens Iran’s trading partners, and warns ‘we’re screwed’ if supreme court blocks tariffs – business live

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Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Trump says countries doing business with Iran face 25% tariff on US trade From oil to wind power…. and shares of Danish renewables giant Orsted have jumped over 5% this morning, after a US judge gave it clearance to resume work on a project off the coast of Rhode Island. The ruling by US district...

Tuesday briefing: What has sparked Iran’s latest wave of protests – and what might happen next

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In today’s newsletter: A researcher with a focus on the region explains what’s behind deadly nationwide demonstrations and what a hardening of public opinion against the state might bring Good morning. At least 648 people have been killed by Iran’s security services during nationwide demonstrations, with more than 10,600 arrested. The unrest is widely seen a...

An ecosystem of smuggled tech holds Iran’s last link to the outside world

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Despite internet blackout, a small number of Iranians are risking their lives to share messages as protests continue For most of Iran, the internet was shut off on Thursday afternoon – the most severe blackout the country has seen in years of internet shutdowns, coming after days of escalating anti-government protests. For a very small sliver of the country,...

Is this the end of the Iranian regime? - podcast

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Protests have rocked Iran, a brutal crackdown is under way and Trump has threatened to intervene. Ellie Geranmayeh on a dangerous moment for the country’s leaders Since December, protesters have been out on the streets in Iran. At first it was small shop or business owners, upset at the impossibly high cost of living and a slumping economy made worse by war,...

Is this the end of the Iranian regime? – podcast

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Protests have rocked Iran, a brutal crackdown is under way and Trump has threatened to intervene. Ellie Geranmayeh on a dangerous moment for the country’s leaders Since December, protesters have been out on the streets in Iran. At first it was small shop or business owners, upset at the impossibly high cost of living and a slumping economy made worse by war,...

France 24 Middle East

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Al-Monitor Middle East

In 'big trouble'? The factors determining Iran's future

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Over two weeks of protests mark the most serious challenge in years to Iran's theocratic leadership in their scale and nature but it is too early to predict the immediate demise of the Islamic republic, analysts say. The demonstrations moved from protesting economic grievances to demanding a wholesale change from the clerical system that has ruled Iran since...

Trump has options on Iran, but first must define goal

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US President Donald Trump has options to intervene in protest-hit Iran that range from low to high risk, but choosing his course depends on him deciding his ultimate goal. It has been 10 days since Trump said the United States was "locked and loaded" and ready to "come to the rescue" if Iran's clerical state kills demonstrators who have taken to the streets...

Trump says countries doing business with Iran face 25% tariff

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WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country that does business with Iran will be subjected to a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States. "Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done wit...

Ukraine's Zelenskiy: world must help Iran engineer change

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Jan 12 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that the world had to help Iranians build on protests to engineer change to free them from rule that brought evil to their own and other countries, including Ukraine. Zelenskiy, speaking in his nightly video address, described the nationwide protests gripping Iran as an "uprising". He...

Iranians tap Musk's Starlink to skirt internet blackout, sources say

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By Supantha Mukherjee, Cassell Bryan-Low and Parisa Hafezi Jan 12 (Reuters) - Some Iranians are still using Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service despite a nationwide communications blackout, three people inside the country said, the latest example of Starlink being used to counter internet shutdowns in geopolitical flashpoints. Iranian authorities...

Iran dangles diplomacy as Trump weighs strikes amid protests

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Despite the outreach, Iran doesn't appear willing to abandon its red lines in talks with the United States.

NPR World

NYTimes Middle East

Trump Explores Diplomacy With Iran While Weighing Strikes, Officials Say

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The Pentagon is presenting a wider range of strike options to the president than previously reported. Targets could include Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile sites.

Iran Says It Is Prepared for War but Ready to Negotiate After Trump’s Warnings

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The comments came after President Trump said he was “ looking at some very strong options” to curb the Iranian authorities’ harsh repression of anti-government protests.

As Death Toll Surges in Iran, Leaders Take Tough Line Against Protesters

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Despite an internet blackout, reports are emerging of a rise in deadly violence as protests spurred by economic woes have snowballed into a mass movement.

Death Toll Grows as Nationwide Protests Rock Iran for a Third Night

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Antigovernment unrest that began two weeks ago has intensified in recent days, as has violence.

Iran Convulsed in Second Night of Nationwide Protests

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Large marches against the government occurred despite an internet blackout and threats of a severe crackdown.

A Look at Iran’s Antigovernment Protests

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Protests have rocked Iran in recent weeks, and the country’s supreme leader has threatened to escalate a crackdown on demonstrators. Erika Solomon, our bureau chief for Iran and Iraq, discusses what’s fueling the protests with our senior writer Katrin Bennhold.

Google News – Iran